Beating Maryland will be no small task

They don’t make as much news as their male counterparts. Most people probably couldn’t name their starting lineup. But tonight, the Lady Commodores are the center of attention as they take on first-seeded Maryland in the regional semifinals in Spokane. Not only is it against a heavily favored offensive juggernaut, but a win would put Vanderbilt in the Elite Eight for the first time in six years.

Vanderbilt is also battling history; since 2002, No. 1 seeds are 21-2 in the round of 16. The only two teams to pull off the upsets in the regional semifinals in that time were Rutgers over Duke in 2007 and LSU over Texas in 2004, and both reached the Final Four.

To pull the upset, I think Vanderbilt’s got to focus heavily on two things: negating Maryland’s height advantage on the boards and taking away their inside game. The Commodores are obviously an outstanding defensive team; look to their smothering of the Mountaineers last weekend for proof of that. However, rebounding is a weak point, and Maryland can expose that with their excellent frontcourt in All-American Crystal Langhorne and Lauren Harper, who stand at 6-2 and 6-4 respectively. The Commodores were the worst in the SEC in rebounding, and no one in Vanderbilt’s starting line-up is taller than 6-1. It doesn’t take a genius to note that senior Liz Sherwood will need to be a force on the boards coming off the bench.

Also, forcing Maryland into shooting from the outside is a must. A theme in Maryland’s rare losses was that they jacked up far more 3-pointers than usual and shot poorly when they did. The Terrapins hit just 14 out of 68 attempts in losses to UNC, Rutgers and Duke this year, about 23 attempts per game, when they usually take just 16, and only against Duke was Maryland furiously firing up shots in an attempt to comeback. Taking away their inside game won’t be easy, but Vanderbilt has to do it if it wants to advance.

Tip-off is at 8:00 CT, and ESPN will broadcast. Go Dores!

Top seeds down early, often

I'm sitting here in the press box at Hawkins Field, waiting through a rain delay before the start of Vandy-South Carolina. Scheduled first pitch is at 4:15 p.m. as they've just taken the tarp off the field. It should be a good one; Vandy walked off with a 4-3 win last night when Ryan Flaherty knocked a bases-loaded single in the bottom of the 13th.

While I'm waiting this out, I thought I'd comment on the massive amount of upsets occurring in conference tournaments these past two weeks. Take a look at some of these numbers:

In four conferences, the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds have BOTH lost in the quarterfinals, sending 6, 7, and 10 seeds to the semis. The Big East (Marquette or Pitt), C-USA (Tulsa), Big Ten (Minnesota or Illinois), and SoCon (Elon) each sent or will send a middle-of-the-pack team to the conference final.

The following top seeds lost the semifinals in mid-major tourneys and won't make the Big Dance:

Big West- UCSB (RPI 87) to No. 5 UC Irvine (RPI 149)
Northeast- Robert Morris (RPI 134) to No. 4 Mt. St. Mary's (RPI 159)
Southland- Stephen F. Austin (RPI 64) to No. 5 Northwestern St. (RPI 187)
SWAC- Alabama State (RPI 206) to No. 4 Jackson St. (RPI 266)
WAC- Utah State (RPI 70) to No. 4 Boise State (RPI 93)

Xavier, South Alabama, and VCU also suffered this same fate, but all have a shot at at-large bids.

What does this all mean? In a year where the bubble is notoriously diluted, the bottom half of the field is diluted even more. Stephen F. Austin, who beat Oklahoma in December, won't have the chance to pull an upset as a 12 or 13 seed. Instead, we'll see Northwestern St. or No. 7 Texas-Arlington crapping out on the 16 line. Mt. St. Mary's won't even make it out of the play-in game, whereas RMU (25-6 regular season) might have pulled out another classic 2-15 or 3-14 upset.

I'm actually in favor of conference tournaments in larger conferences. When teams like Virginia Tech and Texas A&M can play their way into the field with a couple of wins, everyone's happy. Even though some of the tournament "locks" like Louisville, Notre Dame, and Vanderbilt have less to play for, leading to more of these upsets, it's still fascinating basketball to watch.

But why do these smaller conferences insist on playing the same tourneys when only one team can advance? Wouldn't the Southland Conference rather put SFA through as the regular-season champ to give them a chance at more revenue from an NCAA win? At the very least, reduce the tourney field to four teams to send a reasonably good team to the Dance. In other words, make the regular season mean something. Don't reduce the Lumberjacks' chances to a three-game crapshoot in March at a neutral site.

We'll see what happens when the bracket comes out, but don't bet on many of the 12 and 13 seeds pulling out these upsets. They won't be as good as in years past.

Get Ready...

Tomorrow, it begins. Twelve teams, one goal: the coveted SEC Championship. For teams such as Vandy, Tennessee, and Mississippi State, this is a chance to pad their stats and seedings for tourney time. And for pretty much everyone else... it's win or go home.

Four back-to-back-to-back-to-back (whew!) play-in games are being held tomorrow, starting at Noon CT at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Here's what I think is going down...

GAME 1: LSU (SEC West 4 seed) vs. South Carolina (SEC East 5 seed)

You know what? LSU's firing of coach John Brady mid-season may not have been politically or personally correct, but the Tiger's have been on a (relative) tear as of late. South Carolina's quick guards can run some teams ragged, but LSU won't let that happen.

Tigers 68
Gamecocks 63

GAME TWO: Vanderbilt (SEC East 3 seed) vs. Auburn (SEC West 6 seed)

So, Vanderbilt is the 17th ranked team in the country and a lock to go dancing. And Auburn is, well... I don't know what they are, but they aren't going to beat Vandy.

Commodores 80
Tigers 61

GAME THREE: Florida (SEC East 4 seed) vs. Alabama (SEC West 5 seed)

Florida has probably slipped off of that all-important "bubble", so they'll have to beat the Tide to at least have a shot of going dancing. But it isn't going to be easy- 'Bama proved they can grind out and win big games, as evidenced by their OT victory vs. our Commodores. Anyways, maybe Al Horford will skip Hawks practice and come to the game to provide some motivation and love. I guess it's better than having some 6-11 crazy dude with a ridiculous ponytail and major gap between his teeth showing up in the locker room and scaring all of the freshman.

Florida 61
Alabama 58

GAME FOUR: Ole Miss (SEC West 3 seed) vs. Georgia (SEC East 6 seed)

This game is scheduled to tip off at 9:45, but I wouldn't stay up if you have to get up early on Friday, like me (screw you 8 o'clock English!!!). Ole Miss and superfrosh Chris Warren just beat Georgia on the road, and on top of that, the Rebels are a team on a mission: to not embarrass themselves by missing out on March Madness after that stellar start to the season. Warren, Eniel Polynice, and David Huertas will be too much up top, Dwayne Curtis and Kenny Williams will be too much down low, and the Rebels will roll in a grind it out game despite Georgia's home team advantage.

Rebels 75
Bulldogs 62