Raise your hand if you’ve heard of Augustus Gilchrist. No? How about Demetri McCamey, still nobody? Alexis Wangmene? For those of you not related to the three aforementioned players, they are the ones that occupied the spots in last years recruiting rankings that are currently held by future Commodores Jeff Taylor, Lance Goulbourne, and Steve Tchiengang.
If you think that’s just cherry-picking the rankings and that randomly those spots were occupied by underachievers consider this: of the players ranked from 50-150 on Rivals.com, 10 contributed to tournament teams and one of those enrolled a year early (Daniel Hackett). Of the ten, only two were featured players, DeJuan Blair and Robbie Hummel.
The point is expectations must be lowered. Many of the posts and comments on this site have made it seem like these guys are going to step in right away and replace a good amount of the points lost by the graduations of Shan Foster, Alex Gordon, and Ross Neltner. That’s just not going to happen. Freshmen who aren’t top recruits very rarely come in and immediately put up big numbers on good teams. Given time they may develop into front line players, just a quick glance at the 2005 Rivals 150 shows future 1st round picks such as Chris Douglas-Roberts and Darren Collison ranked 75th or lower, but even guys like that did not produce as freshman, combined they averaged less than 14 points.
So, yes, Taylor might go off for 31 in one game like McCamey somehow did against Indiana, but expecting these three to be consistent producers is unreasonable and unfair. If this year’s team is going to go dancing it is more likely to be because of the improvements made by Andre Walker and Darshawn McClellan than by big contributions from the trio of heralded freshmen.
There’s still reason to be excited about Stallings’ best recruiting class since arriving in Nashville, they will most likely lead the Commodores to another Sweet 16, but chances are it won’t be in 2009.
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13 comments:
Aram i respectfully disagree. Those freshmen are going to have to produce because we don't have much else. The difference between the guys you mentioned and the guys we are bringing in are the teams they are going to. Last time i checked, Gilchrest never made it to Maryland so it is kinda hard for him to make an impact. Wangmene went to Texas (after being recruited by Vandy). The same Texas team that had A.J. Abrams, Augustin , and a bunch of other solid talent ahead of him. Not to mention he still saw some bench minutes. McCamey went head to head with Eric Gordon when Illinois played Indiana at home and went off for 31 points and held Gordon to 19 points. Also, I realize that that was one game, but we are also talking about a horrible Illinois team. It is hard for anyone but a five star guy to perform well when they have no help.
Vandy recruits are special. They usually aren't just great basketball players, but also great young men who have great work ethics. Not to mention those guys won't have to come in and be the go to guys. Ogilvy is the man. Beal is a solid PG. Those guys just need to come in and play their games and put up about 12-14 a game. After reading interviews with these guys, they are all very mature, hard-working, confident in their ability, and winners. None of them will be stars right away. No one is asking them to be. They just need to come in and produce because let's face it Metcalfe and Neltner were nothing great last year. Red had his games but was very inconsistent. Shan is Shan. Also, remember that Taylor has international experience just like Ogilvy did and remember how that worked out?
While the expectations can't be too high for these freshmen, at the same time they are four star guys. They have to have some talent and Stallings is as good as anyone at finding players that fit his system. Because we just lost three starters and have a young team, these guys are going to have to come in ready to play because besides Ogilvy and Beal the other players didn't show me much last year that said they were ready to start this year.
Another note: for every four star guy that did not come in an contribute right away. There are about as many guys who did come in last year and contributed. Chris Warren was a three star guy...pretty good freshmen year last season. DeJuan Blair was a huge part of Pitts success last year. Robbie Hummel had a pretty solid season at Purdue. Jeff Teague and James Johnson were Wake's two leading scorers each putting up about 14 a game. Who is to say that our freshmen can't give us those points next year?
First of all, yea there may be some ok 2 and 3 star guys, but I don't care about Wake, they were terrible, Ole Miss missed the tournament as well, so they don't really matter. I just picked those three b/c they were in the same spots as our guys, I coulda chosen almost anybody in the 50-150 range. McCamey had a few good games, but he averaged 8 ppg for one of the worst teams in the big 10 and within 2 weeks of the 31, he had 6 against PSU and 3 against UM, also not really what we're looking for. Saying Vandy recruits are "different" is a little elitist and ridiculous b/c being smart doesn't really make you more qualified to come in and play right away. And "just come in and play and average 12-14 a game"? Those are big expectations, like I said take a look at the recruiting rankings and see how many non-elite guys as freshman are able to do that for tournament teams (like 2 or 3), certainly not 2-3 for one team. AJ was also a higher ranked recruit who was extremely well thought of after the U-18 or 19, i can't remember, games that summer, which is a little different than whatever minor international experience Taylor has playing with noted powerhouse Sweden. Also Dolla was really pretty awful as a freshman, but he made a lot of improvements and is now a solid player, exactly what our sophomores are going to have to do.
what you seem not to realize is that most four star freshmen are not asked to come in and play right away so that is why a majority of them don't contribute. I don't care if Wake sucked. Those guys still put up the numbers i would like to see from our freshmen so i am saying it can be done. Also, Ole Miss might have sucked but we lost to them and Warren was arguably the best freshmen in the league, definitely the most important to his team. Ogilvy was not ranked that much higher. Originally, he was a three star guy and then rivals made him a four star to cover their tracks and even then he was 41st overall...about ten spots ahead of Taylor. I don't think it is elitist at all to say that Vandy recruits are different because they are. Not everyone has the grades and talent to come to Vandy...in fact there are a very small number every year esp. in the top 100. Like I said, no one is asking these guys to come in and be the star. They need to come in and put up about 12-14 points a game, rebound, and play D which i think they all will. They all have the ability to do that.
Also the most comparable team last year to how Vandy will be next year is Purdue. They brought in 4 four star guys last year and all of them played major minutes for them. While all of them didn't put up 14 a game. There three leading scorers all put up 11-12 points on average and two of them were freshmen. I would even take that if Ogilvy can average 20 or close to it. The other two four star guys played about half the game and put up solid numbers. Last time I checked, Purdue did pretty well last year with a young team and they didn't have the seniority that Vandy will have like Beal and Ogilvy. It can be done....
Shochat, I think you need to relax a little bit. Also, you need to lower your expectations. Think about what you are saying:
"They need to come in and put up about 12-14 points a game, rebound, and play D which i think they all will."
This is one of the most absurd statements I've seen in a while. Do you realize how hard it is score to 12-14 points per game in the SEC, especially as a freshman who is used to playing against guys no better than you or me?
It takes time to adjust to the college game, and to expect that much from these guys is just not fair to them. Hopefully they exceed our expectations, but to assume that they are all going to step in and contribute that much right away is just stupid, especially when you have NEVER seen any of them play.
I'm not saying these guys aren't extremely talented or going to have special careers at VU, just that there is going to be a learning curve for all of them. Aram makes a great point about Beal: most good players take that leap between their freshman and sophomore seasons.
Just because we will need these freshmen to play a lot of minutes doesn't mean they are ready, especially defensively. As excited as I am for the future of Vanderbilt basketball, there are going to be some growing pains this season.
I have no more work until finals, so I will be going back and looking at every tournament and top 30 recruiting class going back 5 years to check out how teams that relied as heavily as we probably will did. And although you may be unwilling to admit it teams like wake and ole miss are bad comps b/c none of us will be happy if we go 6-10 in the SEC and wind up playing in the NIT. I will also look at every Vandy squad to check if we are in fact "different", which I consider highly unlikely, it seems to me basketball ability would be a more determining factor in the ability to contribute right away than an high standardized test score, but who knows, I may be wrong.
scoring 12 points...that is six baskets. Jarred you have to agree though if these guys come in and play 20-25 minutes that at least two of them (probably Lance and Taylor) will be able to do that. Aram makes a decent point, but i also think it is flawed because most freshmen aren't given a legit opportunity to contribute when they come in as a freshmen. If you are starting i don't think that is unrealistic esp. if you can get to the basket and get fouled like Lance and Taylor are supposedly able to. I am not saying that all three will put up those numbers every night but we will need at least two of them to help out Ogilvy. I think we should be able to expect that. I am not saying we are going to be a one seed in the tourney or even a top six team, but i think we will be good enough to make the tourney and be a 7-10 seed. If not, I think it will be somewhat of a disappointing season. I may be wrong, but i am going to pull a switch and try and be optimistic instead of pessimistic. Aram, you still don't understand what i am saying with Wake and Ole Miss though. I am saying that they relied on freshmen and those freshmen put up close to the numbers I stated I would hope for our freshmen. Sure the teams sucked, but they didn't have the supporting talent that Vandy will have for the freshmen next year (Beal and Ogilvy). The point is that freshmen can come in and score 12 points a game. As for your research, good luck with that. I don't really care what you find though because i am still going to be optimistic towards next season which consequently will mean the freshmen playing well. You will probably find a lot of factual evidence to support your point (even though i doubt you will find very many teams with similar situations as we will have next year since it is kinda specific). Anyway, there is at least one team out there (Purdue last year) that supports my expectations and that is all i need...(i know, i know, that was the Big Ten, but some thought the Big Ten was better than the SEC last year and next season most teams in the SEC will be very young...)
I am really excited to see these guys play too, but you sound like a homer Shochat. It's good to be optimistic, but let's not be blinded. I seem to remember a lot of unfounded optimism about Vandy basketball before the Siena game...
Not to say these guys can't be productive, but they are not going to be playing at a high level especially as A TEAM until they have some time to adjust to this level.
Well, Greg when football season comes around i will be the complete opposite. I am anything but a homer when it comes to football.
To put an end to this from my end, maybe 12-14 points is too much to ask...Ok. Though with Beal not being a scorer, I think that the freshmen will be asked to score. I will concede that when it comes to defending it will not be easy. My comment about scoring, rebounding, and playing defense was a general comment. I believe they will come in and get a lot of minutes early. Therefore, they will need to do those general things just as anyone on the court is asked to. Will the freshmen have growing pains? Sure. But I hope that by the SEC season, they will be adjusted enough to help Beal and Ogilvy out and get us to the tourney. I realize that high-school to SEC basketball is a jump and even Ogilvy had problems last year, but when it comes down to it, unless Walker and Darshawn improve a ton over the summer, the freshmen are going to get major minutes and with their talents I don't see them not being somewhat productive. Walker is afraid to shoot and Darshawn can't shoot. Therefore, I would be shocked if those two start unless they improve their games over the summer which is quite possible. I have not seen these freshmen play except for on film, but with that said, I think that Taylor and Lance have more talent and more potential than the other Walker and Darshawn. Therefore, I want the best players on the court no matter what age they are. If they make mistakes fine, but I am all for throwing them into the fire and letting them learn. One final point...everyone said we would be horrible after Byars left...that was proven to be incorrect. I have faith in Stallings to shape this young team and get us back to the tourney. If I am a homer, fine. I still hate Bobby J. as a coach more than any Vandy fan alive, so things balance out.
haha holy crap, i think its pretty obvious that a compromise is definitely the solution here. if i'm beating a dead horse, i apologize for not looking at every line of comment on this page, but after finals i'm not about to read another book.
12 points a game as true freshmen in the SEC? schocat, lance and tchiengang barely did that as seniors in high school this past year. just six baskets? how many players on our team have managed "just six baskets" on Vandy's team in the last three years?...three? if two of the freshmen come in and eat significant minutes without noticably screwing up, maybe 7-8 points per game, we should all be happy.
on the actual post, i think its just as crazy to say that players in the top 150 don't contribute. maybe i'm crazy, but 10 out of 100 contibuting on tournament teams alone doesn't sound like a damaging stat at all.
ever heard of blake hoffarber? not even in the rivals 150..vandy looked real hard at him last year, wanted him, but he went to minnesota and had a great freshman year. no, not a tournament team, but 8.4 PPG and a few game winners (one against IU in the big ten quarter finals). other vandy targets that fit this bill, edgar sosa and jason bohannon from the 2006 class. significant minutes, valuable contribution. no, maybe not all conference performers, but anyone expecting more than that out of our big four has never left memorial gym.
significant contributions from freshman haven't been unheard of for vandy, either. look at 2004's class. shan was great, and gordon and demarre were productive as well. anyone remember red dropping 30 on tennessee?
matt freije was our guy in 2000, shan foster in 2004... sounds like we're due for another one this year. it ought to be a fun season, let's not let arguments about too much or too little expectations ruin what we can't control.
1. even the experienced vandy teams of the past two years were inconsistent, particularly on the road. this past year's team was mentally soft too, with experienced seniors. experience might just be overrated. still, last time vandy had no seniors they went 11-18. it's hard to say how well they will play. but unless you have a derrick rose, carmelo anthony type recruit, gaurd your expectations.
2. recruiting ratings are overrated
3. the guy who needs to get 12-14 points a game is Dolla, the frosh (the ones brought in to score) need to chip in that 6-10 range, maybe with some bigger games mixed in.
4. bottom line-the team next year will look great some nights, very iffy others. as far as getting an at-large berth, which i think is a reasonable goal, it's going to come down to winning the road games to get it done. freshmen can react one of two ways, either sort of freak out and get intimidated by better teams or in road games or not even know they are "supposed" to get rattled and just play ball.
1. even the experienced vandy teams of the past two years were inconsistent, particularly on the road. this past year's team was mentally soft too, with experienced seniors. experience might just be overrated. still, last time vandy had no seniors they went 11-18. it's hard to say how well they will play. but unless you have a derrick rose, carmelo anthony type recruit, gaurd your expectations.
2. recruiting ratings are overrated
3. the guy who needs to get 12-14 points a game is Dolla, the frosh (the ones brought in to score) need to chip in that 6-10 range, maybe with some bigger games mixed in.
4. bottom line-the team next year will look great some nights, very iffy others. as far as getting an at-large berth, which i think is a reasonable goal, it's going to come down to winning the road games to get it done. freshmen can react one of two ways, either sort of freak out and get intimidated by better teams or in road games or not even know they are "supposed" to get rattled and just play ball.
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