Tuesday, March 11, 2008

NFL Draft Watch


I'm sure most Vanderbilt football fans are well aware that there will be at least one, and possibly two, Commodores called in the first round of the NFL Draft in April. Both tackle Chris Williams and wide receiver Earl Bennett did nothing but help their stock with their combine performances several weeks ago. Williams solidified his status as a sure first-rounder, while Bennett has a good chance to land in the second round.

Of course draft position relies heavily on team need and position depth within the draft pool, which is favorable for Williams. After Jake Long and Ryan Clady, the consensus top two tackles, Williams is the next best lineman available, which probably means a pick somewhere in the teens.

Of teams in this range, there are several that have pressing offensive line concerns and should be in the market for a lineman (pick in parentheses): Buffalo Bills (11), Denver Broncos (12), Chicago Bears (14), Detroit Lions (15), Houston Texans (18). The Steelers at No. 23 are a possibility as well if Jeff Otah goes first and other cards fall in place.

The Bills were the second worst team last year in allowing yardage to opposing offenses, but already made big offseason acquisitions in defensive tackle Marcus Stroud in a trade from Jacksonville and free agent linebacker Kawika Mitchell. That means they will probably focus on offense in the draft and either find a weapon for their young QBs (whichever one starts) or find protection for them.

The Broncos desperately need a linebacker after struggling last year at the position and after cutting veteran Ian Gold. But another Vanderbilt alum is struggling behind a weak offensive line, and reuniting Williams with Jay Cutler is an intriguing possibility. However, after cutting Javon Walker loose, Denver will now think long and hard about getting another receiver.

The Bears are a mess. Last season, the defense was far from the dominant force it was during the team's Super Bowl run, though mostly because of injuries. Still, the offense is in far worse shape. Both Mushin Muhammed and Bernard Berrian are gone, leaving the receiving corps decimated, and Cedric Benson is a bust in the backfield.

Sadly for the Bears, there will be no quarterback worth taking at their draft position to solve the Rex Grossman problem. That means just like the Bills and Broncos, the Bears will likely take either a receiver or a lineman, and Williams could be the guy.

The Lions need offensive line help badly, but after taking receivers in the first round of four straight drafts, defense should take precedence this time around in Detroit.

Every year the Texans have a miserable offensive line and fail to address those positions in the draft. Williams seems like a logical choice with the defense improving and key offensive weapons already established. Then again, the prove conventional wisdom wrong every year.

Williams is not a consensus No. 3 lineman, and should Jeff Otah go before him and the teams with picks in the teens opt to address other needs, he could fall to the Steelers at 23. Losing Alan Faneca in free agency was a big blow to the offensive line stability they have had for the last several years, and they would likely jump on Williams were he to fall this far. Pittsburgh could move him to guard, and seeing as there is not another immediate concern, it is very unlikely Williams falls past Pittsburgh.

Coming soon, Earl Bennett...

Tournament time

Now the real fun begins.

After matching its best regular season ever with 25 wins, Vanderbilt (25-6, 10-6 Southeastern Conference) opens its postseason Thursday in Atlanta at the SEC tournament against Auburn.

“This is obviously the exciting time of year,” said Vanderbilt coach Kevin Stallings.

Vanderbilt is a lock for March Madness, but a strong performance in the SEC tournament is important so the Commodores can improve their seeding.

The Commodores, after rolling through February undefeated, lost two of their last three regular season games, with those coming at Arkansas and then in the season closer at Alabama on March 8. Kentucky took the No. 2 seed in the SEC East and earned a first-round bye in the SEC tournament.

Freshman A.J. Ogilvy, while disappointed, is looking to the future rather than the past.

“Tournament play is what it’s all about,” Ogilvy said. “We know that we can get it done in the tournament.”

The losses were sandwiched around a thrilling overtime win over Mississippi State at Memorial Gym on March 5, where senior Shan Foster scored a career-high 42 points and hit a game-winning 3-pointer with 2.7 seconds left. The 86-85 win capped a 19-0 record at Memorial Gym for the season.

Away from Memorial Gym has been a different story. Vanderbilt finished 4-6 in true road games for the season, 2-6 in SEC road games. All four of Vanderbilt’s road wins came against teams that wound up with losing records.

That leads some to question Vanderbilt’s ability to play good basketball outside of Nashville.

“I don’t know that we’ve been that bad outside of our own gym,” Stallings said. “I think that gets distorted because we were undefeated inside of it.”

As the No. 3 seed out of the SEC East, Vanderbilt draws Auburn (14-15, 4-12 SEC), who finished in last place in the SEC West. The Commodores defeated Auburn in a closely contested game at Memorial Gym on Feb. 2, 78-71, in their only match-up this season.

“We had a tough game against Auburn the first time,” Stallings said. “As everybody knows, they present match-up problems because of their size and quickness.”

Auburn coach Jeff Lebo and his squad won’t be intimidated against Vanderbilt in Atlanta.

“I think we go in with a little bit of confidence,” Lebo said. “At least we don’t have to play them at their place.”

Don’t count on Ogilvy and his teammates minding not playing in the friendly confines of Memorial Gym, though.

“We know that we’re not playing at home, but we’re not playing at anyone else’s home either,” Ogilvy said. “We know that although we’ve had some trouble on the road we’re confident that we’ll be able to get it done.”

SEC Power Rankings

Before the SEC Tournament kicks off in the ATL on Thursday, I figured it'd be good to see where each team stands. Disagree? As always, leave your comments below...

1) Tennessee (28-3, 14-2)
The Vols may have captured their first SEC regular season title since 1967, but can they find success in the league tournament later this week? They're 7-16 since 1992, including 0-3 as the No. 1 seed.

2) Mississippi State (21-9, 12-4)
Despite a slow start, the Bulldogs ultimately lived up to their preseason hype. With the SEC's best defense (65 points per game) and phenom Jamont Gordon running the offense, I doubt any team wants to face State in the Big Dance.

3) Vanderbilt (25-6, 10-6)

How do you follow up a thrilling overtime victory over Mississippi State on Senior Night? By losing at lowly Alabama. An amazing home team (19-0) and dismal road team, the Commodores' seed will be determined by their performance on a neutral site in Atlanta.

4) Kentucky (20-10, 12-4)
Somewhere Ashley Judd is beaming. Somehow these Wildcats are headed to the NCAA Tournament. On another note, other than Gardner-Webb, their early losses (UAB, at Houston, San Diego), aren't terrible, especially when you take all the injuries into account.

5) Ole Miss (21-9, 7-9)

The 2008 version of Arkansas may need to string together a few victories in Atlanta to secure a bid, but regardless, you have to commend Andy Kennedy for the job he's done with a Rebel squad that was expected to finish last in the league.

6) Arkansas (20-10, 9-7)

This team continues to confuse me. Clearly talented enough to be in the tourney, the Razorbacks can never seem to put it all together. They've lost three of five and will probably need to beat Auburn/Vanderbilt on Friday to stay in contention for a bid.

7) Florida (21-10, 8-8)

To steal a line from Rick Pitino, Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Corey Brewer aren't walking through that door. The Gator Boys have lost seven of 10, with their victories coming against Georgia (twice) and South Carolina, and will probably not even have a chance to go back-to-back-to-back.

8) LSU (13-17, 6-10)

Want proof that LSU made the right decision in firing lunatic John Brady? The Tigers were 1-6 in SEC play with him and 5-4 without him. On a completely random note, LSU has to be the skinniest team in the league. They've got guys 6'10, 205, 6'10, 218 and 6'11, 205. That means if I'm 5'10 (on a good day), I should weigh about 27 pounds, right?

9) Alabama (16-15, 5-11)

At least the Crimson Tide were able to celebrate Senior Night, upsetting Vandy in overtime. Here's to hoping point guard Ronald Steele makes a full comeback next season.

10) South Carolina (13-17, 5-11)

Two things that are true: Devan Downey gives opposing teams headaches and Little Davey Odom (read John Feinstein's A March to Madness) will be missed.

11) Georgia (13-16, 4-12)

It's been a long season for the Bulldogs and coach Dennis Felton is on the hot seat. One quick question: Can Knowshon Moreno play basketball?

12) Auburn (14-15, 4-12)

Wait, Auburn still has a basketball team? Football fans have already begun salivating over offensive coordinator Tony Franklin and the new-look offense.

Monday, March 10, 2008

(David) Price Check in Tampa Bay

I didn't agree with many things the Tampa Bay Devil Rays did. For one thing, removing the word "Devil" from their name was, undoubtedly, a poor decision no matter how many people the "satanic" element of their name offended.

Congratulations, management! You've just succeeded in removing any remaining character in an already humiliating franchise.

Somehow, I have a feeling, that I won't agree with a lot of things the Tampa Bay Rays do either.

Last Saturday, Vanderbilt Alumni, and last year's No. 1 overall draft pick in the MLB Draft, David Price made his professional debut in a Grapefruit League game against the Yankees.

Not surprisingly, Price blew spectators and three Yankees hitters away, striking out the side with an onslaught of 98 MPH fastballs, and filthy slider in his lone inning of work. Nothing wrong with that.

What worries me, however, is that the Devil Rays... pardon me... Tampa Bay management might make another bad decision, and try to capitalize on their young talent before it's ready for the pressures and challenges of the Major Leagues.

With other strong prospects, like pitcher Jeff Niemann, and future star-third baseman Evan Longoria, moving onto the big show this year, something tells me that there may be some hurry to get Price into the act as well.

While Price certainly has the raw stuff to succeed in the Major Leagues now, trying to push him too quickly could really hurt his progress in becoming a premier pitcher in the big leagues.

Not too long ago, a 21 year-old pitcher by the name of Zack Greinke was thrown into the number one spot in the Kansas City Royals pitching rotation, touted as one of the brightest young pitchers in baseball.

Greinke, amid high hopes, was absolutely crushed by Major League hitters and expectations, losing 17 games that year and posting a 5.80 ERA in 2005.

Obviously, Price will not be thrust into the same ridiculous position as Greinke, but Tampa Bay has had a history of rushing solid pitching talents as well, and usually not with great results.

I know most people at Vanderbilt would love to see Price represent and put up big numbers in the big leagues. He'll do that, and he'll likely do that soon, but there's no need for the Rays (there, I said it) to make another bad decision and toss him into the fire too quickly.

All that being said, so far so great for Price, who's on his way to a very promising career.

A Sneak Peek

As good as we are this year, imagine what we'll be like when this kid comes in next season. He may not be Shan Foster (who is?), but hey, I'll take him. Ladies and gentlemen, hailing from the Hun School in Princeton, New Jersey, your future small forward, LAAAAAAAAAAAAANCE GOULBOURNE:



Sure he averages 17 points a game, but can A.J. Ogilvy do this?

And the winner is...

With the regular season over, it's time to hand out some SEC awards. While stats are important, they aren't the determining factor, which is why I didn't value players like South Carolina's Devan Downey and LSU's Marcus Thornton (great numbers on horrible teams) as highly as guys like Kentucky's Ramel Bradley or Arkansas' Sonny Weems (key players on winning teams). Disagree with the choices? Feel free to leave your comments below.

FIRST TEAM ALL-SEC
G: Shan Foster (Vanderbilt, Senior)
20.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists
No words needed. In case you need convincing, just click here and then here.
G: Jamont Gordon (Mississippi State, Junior)
17.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists
Try finding a player you can compare Gordon to. You can't, which is why he is one of my favorite college basketball players of all time.
F: Richard Hendrix (Alabama, Junior)
17.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.0 blocks
One of the lone bright spots for the Crimson Tide, Hendrix was also the lone SEC player to average a double-double.
F: Patrick Patterson (Kentucky, Freshman)
16.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.2 blocks
The Wildcats may be winning without him now, but there's no way they'd be on the brink of a NCAA Tournament bid if not for Patterson's stellar play from November to February. Still, every time I hear people talk about the "Booger Eater," only one image comes to mind.
F: Tyler Smith (Tennessee, Sophomore)
13.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists
Smith's game-winner against Memphis is one of the best moments of the college basketball season. While his numbers may not be phenomenal, Smith is the main reason the Vols are in line for a No. 1 seed.

SECOND TEAM ALL-SEC

G: Ramel Bradley (Kentucky, Senior)
16.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists
Forget about points, Bradley played at least 37 minutes in 13 SEC games, and 40+ in 10.
G: Devan Downey (South Carolina, Junior)
18.3 points, 5.2 assists, 3.0 rebounds
The lone bright spot for the Gamecocks, the explosive Downey was a pest on defense (3.2 steals per game) and virtually impossible to guard on offense.
G: Chris Lofton (Tennessee, Senior)
16.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists
While he may not have lived up to the preseason hype, Lofton still put together a fine campaign, particularly in league play.
F/C: Charles Rhodes (Mississippi State, Senior)
16.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.3 blocks
The steady, if unspectacular, Rhodes picked it up down the stretch, averaging 23.6 points and 10.0 rebounds over his last five games.
F: Sonny Weems (Arkansas, Senior)
14.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists
The versatile Weems was terrific in SEC play, averaging 17.3 points and 5.1 rebounds, while playing great defense for an Arkansas squad that finds itself very much on the bubble.

ALL-FRESHMAN TEAM
Picking this team was easy as all five players are very much deserving.
G: Nick Calathes (Florida)
G: Chris Warren (Ole Miss)
F/C: A.J. Ogilvy (Vanderbilt)
F: Patrick Patterson (Kentucky)
F: Anthony Randolph (LSU)

SEC PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Shan Foster (Vandy)

Like Kevin Stallings, I'm not a fan of the argument that the award should go to the best player on the best team. There is no question that The Truth deserves this honor. It hurts to even think where the Commodores would be without him.

SEC DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Jarvis Varnado (Miss. State)

The numbers say it all: 7.9 rebounds and 4.8 blocks per game. And's he only a sophomore.

SEC SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: J.P. Prince (Tennessee)

Don't forget that Prince would have been a Commodore had Vanderbilt allowed mid-year transfers. Prince opted for the Vols instead and is averaging an impressive 8.5 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists off the bench.

SEC COACH OF THE YEAR: Bruce Pearl (Tennessee)

In three years, Pearl has gotten a football school to care about basketball and turned a SEC bottom-feeder into one of the nation's elite. While the Vols are undoubtedly talented, Pearl deserves credit for acclimating Tyler Smith and J.P. Prince to his up-tempo offense. For those of you who think that Billy Gillespie should get the nod, ask yourself this question: Did he ever feel up Erin Andrews? I don't think so.

Regular season odds and ends

Vanderbilt finishes the regular season with a 25-6 overall record, a perfect 19-0 at Memorial Gym, 6-6 at road or neutral sites. In the SEC, Vanderbilt went 8-0 at home and 2-6 on the road, finishing 10-6 in the conference for a second straight season. The 25 total wins tied the most in a regular season in school history. Vanderbilt's 16-0 start was the best in school history.
  1. The victory over then-No. 1 Tennessee on Feb. 26 was Vanderbilt's only win over a ranked opponent this season.
  2. Vanderbilt went 21-0 when it scored at least 74 points, 4-6 when it scored less than 74.
  3. The Commodores were 0-3 in games when they scored exactly 73 points, dropping those to Kentucky, Arkansas and Alabama.
  4. Vanderbilt finishes as the second-highest scoring team with 80.4 points per game and the best 3-point shooting team in the SEC.
  5. The Commodores were the worst in the conference in scoring defense, allowing 73.9 points per game.
  6. In January and March, Vanderbilt went 5-6. In February, Vanderbilt went 7-0.
  7. Vanderbilt has beaten every team in the SEC at least once over the past two seasons except Arkansas.
  8. Shan Foster finished as the SEC scoring champion with 20.6 points per game and a league-leading 125 3-pointers.
  9. In Vanderbilt's 10 conference wins, Foster averaged 22.3 points per game. In Vanderbilt's six conference losses, he averaged 16.3.
  10. A.J. Ogilvy finished fourth in the conference in free throw shooting percentage and field goal shooting percentage, and ninth in the conference in scoring.
  11. Alex Gordon hit 30 three-pointers in 67 tries in the 10 conference wins for a 44.7 percent shooting clip from beyond the arc. In six losses, he was eight for 33, shooting 24.2 percent.
  12. Jermaine Beal had 75 assists against just 23 turnovers in 16 SEC games, a better than 3:1 assists-to-turnovers ratio. After turning the ball over seven times in the season opener against Austin Peay, Beal never turned it over more than four times again. He led the SEC in overall assist-to-turnover ratio with 2.86:1.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

SEC Tournament Bracket Set

The SEC Men's Basketball Tournament matchups are set. Vanderbilt (25-6, 10-6) plays Auburn Thursday afternoon in the first round and will take on Arkansas Friday if it wins. While the Commodores are not looking ahead, there is a chance they could play Tennessee in the semis. Here's a look at the bracket, with Vanderbilt's potential games and times in bold.

First Round (Thursday, March 13)
Game 1 - [E5] South Carolina vs. [W4] LSU Noon CT
Game 2 - [W6] Auburn vs. [E3] Vanderbilt 2:15 CT
Game 3 - [W5] Alabama vs. [E4] Florida 6:30 CT
Game 4 - [E6] Georgia vs. [W3] Ole Miss 8:45 CT

Second Round (Friday, March 14)
Game 5 - Game 1 Winner vs. [E1] Tennessee Noon CT
Game 6 - Game 2 Winner vs. [W2] Arkansas 2:15 CT
Game 7 - Game 3 Winner vs. [W1] Mississippi State 6:30 CT
Game 8 - Game 4 Winner vs. [E2] Kentucky 8:45 CT

Seminfinals (Saturday, March 15)
Game 9 - Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner Noon CT
Game 10 - Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner 2:15 CT

Finals (Sunday, March 16)
Game 11 - Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner Noon CT [CBS]